Tuesday, October 7, 2008

Photo



Bungee Jumping in Cairns















Sydney Darling Harbour - Very colurful








@ Brisbane golf course











Sydney Harbour bridge in twilight











Emerging Economies - Emerging Realities

[Response to blogging round 2]



  • By 2025, China will have overtaken the United States to become the world's biggest consumer market, with India as the third-largest and Russia the fourth-largest.

  • By 2010, the middle class in China and India will outnumber the entire population of the United States.

  • The number of credit cards in India grew by 35 percent in 2006 to more than 26 million.

  • No country buys more TVs or mobile phones than China.

  • Mexico is the second-largest consumer market for soft drinks

  • China is the world’s largest consumer of grain, meat, coal and steel.

Emerging markets are countries that are restructuring their economies along market-oriented lines and offer a wealth of opportunities in trade, technology transfers, and foreign direct investment. According to the World Bank, the five biggest emerging markets are China, India, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia. Other countries that are also considered as emerging markets include Mexico, Argentina, South Africa, Poland, Turkey, and South Korea. These countries made a critical transition from a developing country to an emerging market. Each of them is important as an individual market and the combined effect of the group as a whole will change the face of global economics and politics.
Traditionally, the growth of emerging markets has been built on supplying low-cost goods and services to the developed world. Now, however, these emerging markets are becoming lucrative targets for multinational manufacturers, service providers and retailers as employment rates and income potential continue to soar. Emerging economies, which are experiencing a budding middle class numbering in the millions, are on target to account for more than half of global consumption by 2025. What is also evident is that multinational companies are refocusing their sights on emerging economies as the sheer growth potential of these markets is thriving. China, the largest market for mobile phones with more than 395 million subscribers, is set to overtake Japan as the world's second-largest car market. And Mexico represents the world's second-largest soft drink market. Developing economies are challenging the traditionally strong markets of the past as new markets, coupled with consumers who now have spending power, continue to emerge.

Population –gives the edge
More than 80 percent of the world's six billion people live in emerging economies with China and India each boasting populations of more than a billion. China will double its per capita income in 10 years (five times more quickly than the United Kingdom and the United States did during the industrial revolution). While new consumers enter the market, existing consumers will seek more sophisticated products and services. The fastest growth in consumption will be in the burgeoning middle classes, those with earnings high enough to trigger discretionary spending. Our research suggests that, by 2010, China and India will together have 123 million middle-class households. This is more than the total number of households, not just middle class households, in the United States. Many emerging economies will see their consumption levels fueled by a considerable demographic dividend as the proportion of the population that is of working-age swells.


New Jobs
Incomes in emerging economies will also be boosted by rising levels of employment. Asia is forecast to supply 66 percent of new jobs between 2005 and 2020, with the United States contributing just 3 percent and the European Union contributing 2 percent. These jobs will not just be low-wage. Salaries will be boosted by urbanization and the acceleration in the trend of global sourcing, which will shift higher value-added jobs to emerging economies. The rapid economic growth enjoyed in emerging economies will be the primary catalyst underpinning these trends.


A virtual circle of economic prosperity
As consumption takes off, increased output will in turn drive increased employment, wages and domestic spending, creating a virtual circle of economic prosperity anchored increasingly in domestic demand. Saving has traditionally been high in a number of emerging economies. With low welfare safety nets, families put money aside for the costs of illness, unemployment, education and old age. But there is evidence that purse strings will be loosened in the coming years, thanks to rising incomes, strengthening social provision and government policies to reduce reliance on growth driven by investment and exports.


Consumer spending in emerging economies has also been held back by a lack of access to consumer credit. The use of credit cards, a major facilitator of consumer spending, remains very low in emerging economies. In 2005, for every 100 people in China, India and Russia, there were approximately two credit cards compared with 240 in the United States. But financial market liberalization across the emerging world will boost the availability and affordability of consumer credit, fueling spending and reducing the savings rate across emerging markets.




It’s going to be China vs. INDIA

Of the emerging markets, the real fight is going to between China and India.
Let’s have a look at some numbers between China and India:


1. World Bank forecasts china’s 2008 GDP growth rate to 9.6%.While Indian economy to grow at a bit lower rate of 8.7%.
2. Chinese economy is worth more than three times that of Indian economy.
3. China’s forex reserves exceeds $ 1.6 trillion while Indian forex reserve is at $292 billion.
4. China boasts of having five out of 10 biggest companies of the world in terms of M-Cap, whereas India has not a single company listed in top 10 companies of the world in terms of M-cap. (As per 2007 data)
So what do these numbers signify? Is China all set to outpace India? Let’s look beyond numbers.

FDI vs Entreprenurship
China has discouraged or actively undermined local entrepreneurship in favour of foreign direct investment-dependent approach. India, on the other hand, is building an infrastructure—however slowly—that allows entrepreneurship and free enterprise to thrive. By making fuller use of its resources, India's long-term outlook may be far stronger.

India is achieving some impressive results with just half of China’s level of domestic investment in new factories and equipment, and only 10 per cent of China’s foreign direct investment. China is investing close to 50 per cent of its GDP in domestic plant and equipment - roughly equivalent to India’s entire GDP. That is higher than any other country. China’s growth stems from massive accumulation of resources, while India’s growth comes from increasing efficiency. The world-class manufacturing facilities for which China is famous are products of FDI, not of indigenous chinese companies.

India has a more laissez-faire attitude in entrepreneurship. Infosys was founded by seven entrepreneurs with few political connections who nevertheless managed, without significant hard assets, to obtain capital from Indian banks and the stock ­market in the early 1990s. It is unimaginable that a Chinese bank would lend to a Chinese equivalent of an Infosys. China was light years ahead of India in economic liberalisation in the 1980s. Today it lags behind in critical aspects, such as reforms that would permit more foreign investment and domestic private entry in the financial sector.

China’s hidden weakness is the massive and often centrally planned investments, which are often less productive than the Indian investments. In the long run, that’s not going to work without more open competition, creativity and entrepreneurship. India’s hidden strength is that the country is already extremely entrepreneurial - but in the informal sector. Most of the cars we see on the roads, and many computers in the offices, are assembled in small, informal factories, outside the law, to avoid the many regulations and taxes that still curb the Indian economy. Imagine what the Indians could do if all that energy was legalised.


Democracy vs. Repression
India’s ace in the hole is its democracy vs. China’s repression. There’s no way China will beat India in the long run with its new, even stricter censorship. Centralizing thought dampens innovation. And a democracy gives you a much better shot at political and economic stability in the long run. A financial crisis does not seem unlikely, and how the undemocratic system would deal with such difficulties is another mystery. As long as China’s political and legal system is not as open as the economy, China will remain a risky and unpredictable place.





Tortoise vs Hare
So this race is analogous to the classic race between tortoise vs Hare. China has raced ahead but is missing in key fundamentals like entrepreneurship, social stability and democracy. While India has sustainable growth model with a long term vision. Who will win the race is anybody’s guess...

Monday, October 6, 2008

Why should i be Numero Uno?

Do I have what it takes to be a ‘Numero Uno’? I do because I am a PAGUL!!!
· Persuasive communicator
· Administrator with a difference
· Go-getter attitude
· Unconventional thinker
· Leader (Effective and Ethical)
A seasoned IT professional turned B-school student at IIM Shillong, I, Ramanarayanan PA, (liked to be called Ram) see the ‘Numero Uno’ challenge as a perfect setting to exhibit my leadership skills. I feel that the above mentioned characteristics in me will take me close to ‘Numero Uno’ title and eventually take hold of it from rest of the folks.

I strongly believe that communication is the real work of leadership. An all India debate champion at college level, I see myself as a persuasive speaker. I can reach people by appealing to their sense as well as appeal to their emotions. I have a talent for simplicity when it comes to communication. I can distil complex thoughts and messages, however complex it may be, to something that is accessible to all. It’s not just about talking, I also have the ability to listen and receive ideas from others.

As an effective administrator, I have sharpened my skills related to three key areas: conceptual, technical/analytical and interpersonal skills. With my conceptual skills, I can see the bigger picture and organize one’s thinking in a logical and related manner. The analytical skills I possess helps me in systematically use the available information to analyze and understand situations that calls for decision making. The interpersonal skills help me in being an effective team player/leader.

My positive attitude energizes and illuminates the star in me. This is the central force that keeps me running with a daring mindset. I always create an attitude of success. As a leader; I have always brought in the right winning attitude to my team. I always see my team as a valuable resource that can produce positive results if a positive environment is created.

In today’s competitive business environment, creativity and out of the box thinking is the differentiator between an efficient and effective leader. I have realized this unwritten dogma and have equipped myself to be an unconventional thinker. While working with Infosys, I have successfully suggested new ideas which have helped in improving the business propositions for the clients. I have been known for bringing in creativity and innovation to my team.

Finally I see myself as an ethical leader. Being an effective and ethical leader I have the desire to do the right thing for my team, company and the customers. I model the behaviour that I wish others to demonstrate. I maintain strong relationships with everyone by sustaining high levels of mutual trust. For this I model myself as a person who deserves their trust in the first place. For my team I define the path and boldly lead the way. I see myself as a well equipped business leader for building sustainable organizations.

Promote entrepreneurship among B-school students

Management graduates are meant to be future leaders and change masters irrespective of being an entrepreneur or part of an organization. They should follow their own goals rather than succumbing to peer pressure irrespective of being corporate masters or servants. The Narayana Murthys and Premjis didn't start of saying they want to be corporate masters. But they merely did what they wanted to do. Success depends on one's ability to be competitive. Once you are inside an organisation or an entrepreneur, you have to make competitiveness a part of you.
Having said this, the management graduates aspiring to become entrepreneurs are not fully equipped by the B schools compared to his peers who venture into corporate life. Management graduates aspiring to take entrepreneurial plunge feel that practical business world is different from what is taught in management schools. The knowledge imparted in the business schools is not similar to the situation one faces while starting a business. The person just out of the B-school expects the business environment to be of a different kind i.e. supportive to the requirements of the person, but the situation is utterly different which is due to the lack of practical experience. He faces various problems like capital, lack of practical experience of the industry, problem of infrastructure, etc...
According to me the solution for this issue can be achieved by addressing three important aspects of management education. They are
· Education curriculum,
· Internships
· Final placements.
These play an important role in shaping the career of a management graduate. But when it comes to aspiring entrepreneurs the system fails. This is because of the completely different set of requirements for entrepreneurs.
Educational curriculum
Entrepreneurship is not considered as a functional stream like finance, marketing etc. by most of the B schools. The theoretical concepts learned in formal B school education don’t equip a management graduate to take the entrepreneurial plunge. So the first step to promote entrepreneurship would be to modify the educational curriculum in B schools for those students who are aspiring to take the entrepreneurial route.
The objective of this change in the curriculum is to:
1. To create a capacity to start a new venture
2. To provide insight into working in a small venture
3. To develop ‘business’ understanding in general
4. To develop personal ‘enterprising’ capabilities
The challenge is to allow young people to experience and feel the concept rather than just learn about it in the conventional sense. This leads to emphasis upon a pedagogy that encourages learning: by doing; by exchange; by copying (and learning from the experience); by experimentation; by risk taking and ‘positive’ mistake making; by creative problem solving; by feedback through social interaction; by dramatisation and role playing; by close exposure to role models; and, in particular, interaction with the outside/adult world.
The courses should concentrate on the following three aspects:
Entrepreneurial SkillsThe unique traits, behaviours and processes that differentiate an entrepreneur from an employee or manager.
Ready Skills The business, or entrepreneurial, knowledge and skills that are prerequisites or co-requisites for the study of entrepreneurship.
Business Functions The business activities performed in starting and running a business.

Internships
Management graduates aspiring to become corporate professional get a feel of corporate work during their internships. Aspiring entrepreneurs also end up doing their interns in the same fashion. This gives them no opportunity to explore their desired field of interest. The main constraint in entrepreneurship interns is the lack of opportunity to pursue. But social entrepreneurship could be a solution to this issue.
Internships for aspiring entrepreneurs can be built on the lines social entrepreneurship. Social entrepreneurs are individuals with innovative solutions to society’s most pressing social problems. They are ambitious and persistent, tackling major social issues and offering new ideas for wide-scale change.
Just as entrepreneurs change the face of business, social entrepreneurs act as the change agents for society, seizing opportunities others miss and improving systems, inventing new approaches, and creating solutions to change society for the better. While a business entrepreneur might create entirely new industries, a social entrepreneur comes up with new solutions to social problems and then implements them on a large scale.
The aspiring entrepreneurs must identify business ideas, should not depend on grant permanently and make profit to give it back to the society. The non-government organisations (NGOs) pay well today and even corporates offer huge amount under Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR). So the students with an urge to become entrepreneurs can test their business skills in the real environment and at the same time can do some contribution to the society. This would give them a laboratory environment to test their ideas and the results can be readily perceived.
I feel that the concept of social entrepreneurship is very much relevant to our institute, IIM Shillong.
The strategic location of IIM Shillong in the north east gives plenty of opportunities to explore different avenues of social entrepreneurship. Today, India has woken up from her long slumber and is on her way to becoming one among the giant nations. However, NE India continues to hibernate. The geographical proximity with Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Burma, Tibet and China, has, instead of providing opportunities for trade, isolated the region. India’s relationship with these neighbours has not been conducive for business, with the result the NE has been cut off not only from the neighbouring nations but even mainland India. It has become like an economic island in the middle of Asia. To make the economic condition worse, investors shy away from the NE India as ethnic disputes and insurgency raises its ugly head at alarmingly regular intervals.
This gives an opportunity to address the economic and societal issues in north east and thereby improving our entrepreneurial skills.

Final placements
Top Indian B schools have been successful in placing their students in high paying jobs. But when it comes aspiring entrepreneurs no B school have so far developed a comprehensive process to fulfil their needs. Aspiring entrepreneurs need proper guidance and assistance to start their business at the end of their course.
The biggest problem faced by the aspiring entrepreneurs is to mobilize the initial capital. The money is always difficult to find? Even the confident management graduates for top B schools find it difficult when it comes to launching their own business. Finance is the biggest constraint, and there is nothing to fall back on should they fail to find the initial capital.
As part of the placements for aspiring entrepreneurs the institute should invite banks, venture capitalists and other institutions that would be ready to finance the budding entrepreneurs. Similar to placement interviews the students would be tested and gauged on their business acumen. Students would need to present their B plans to banks and venture capitals. This would be beneficial to both the students and financial institutions. Students get an opportunity to present their ideas and B plans to potential investors. Also the institutes brand value would help in lending more credibility to their ideas. For the financial institutions it gives a platform to meet the aspiring entrepreneurs and serve as a one stop shop to meet all those who are interested. This step also proves as a win-win situation for both students and potential investors.

The risks associated with the new venture are the major impeding factor for aspiring entrepreneurs. This when compared with the luring pay checks of corporate jobs, forces them to shelve their ideas in cold storage. The perceived risk is due to gaps in education curriculum, lack of opportunities to test their skills and difficulty in mobilizing the capital. The solutions suggested addresses the above mentioned gaps and would ensure no aspiring entrepreneurs would leave his/her B school without achieving the goal.



Saturday, October 4, 2008

Its Me - Ram

(I think there is some rule which says that introductions should be written in third-person, so let me try…)
The author of this blog, er… this blogger’s name is Ramanarayanan PA - RAM for short (and Ramnarayan for medium). He describes himself as a normal human being, whose only problem is to make the world understand that he is, well, a normal human being. He is currently lives in the Shillong, in the serene and green campus of IIM.

The first 24 years of his life were spent in the adorable city of Chennai, in South India. This explains his liking, even failing for spicy food, good music and calm environs. A firm believer in traditions, Ram is socially conservative, sometimes fiercely so, as his posts would attest.

Ram is an avid debater. He likes to debate on anything and everything. He proclaims himself as a persuasive public speaker and never misses a chance to address a mass gathering whether it his class or team or any gathering of more than 10. A travel freak, he has travelled across length and breadth of Australia, thanks to Infy which sponsored his visit in the name of onsite assignment. A adventure freak, he is a certified bungy jumper, and has tried scuba diving, ocean kayaking and snorkelling but yet to learn swimming. But he can remain calm when thrown into a water body hoping someone to come and rescue.

He is a big fan of Ayn Rand and has also named his blog link after the famous Ayn Rand's lines from Atlas Shrugged - "Who is John Galt"!!!

He has been a true leader both as a corporate professional and as a student. After proving his leadership skills at Infosys for 4 years he joined IIM Shillong. He was unanimously selected to represent the student community at IIM Shillong. Day in and out he innovates and tries his skills at managing and leading people.

A true foodie, he has been through various gastronomic adventures. Apart from south indian he is a big fan of Punjabi and Rajasthani food.

A Failed Leader

John McCain’s leadership credentials have taken a huge beating, after the “bailout plan” for which McCain claims all the credit (and totally undeservedly) was defeated in the House of Representatives.
McCain’s supporters and campaign managers had gone on every single news program claiming that it was the Arizona senator who had engineered bipartisan support for the bill, while also calling for the plan to be rewritten and expanded upon. This from a man, who had just a couple of days earlier claimed not to have read the original 3-page Paulson plan. And a man who openly agrees that he does not understand the economy.
Yes, quite a few House Democrats did not vote for the bill. But House Republicans, who Senator McCain claimed to have convinced voted “Nay” in large numbers. This is a huge failure for Senator McCain; it shows that neither does he have any knowledge of the economy nor does he have the leadership required to run a country in crisis. Damn, he doesn’t have his “House” in order.

Buffett on Economy

“You see, the economy is like a bathtub - you can’t have cold water in the front, and hot water at the back!” - Warren Buffett